Modeling distribution grids of the future: Importance of the scenario frameworks for the grid development plan in low voltage grids

Abstract:
The increasing electrification of the transport and heating sector through electric vehicles and heat pumps and the simul-taneous decentralization of electricity generation through photovoltaic systems - both predominantly at the low-voltage level - is changing the energy system. EVs in particular already have a major influence on the local utilization of operating resources due to their comparatively high charging power. In the same period, a massive expansion of photovoltaic sys-tems is expected in the low-voltage grid. Reliable and comparable figures for the distribution grid of the future are either highly individualized for the respective distribution grid operators or difficult to compare because of different assumptions in different studies. In the transmission grid, the grid operators have drawn up a full framework of scenarios or the 2037/2045 Electricity Network Development Plan in order to determine future requirements for the electricity grid. As the scenario is developed for the transmission grid, there is no adaptation of the relevant results to the distribution grid or low-voltage level. In this work, the impact of the Network Development Plan at a low-voltage level is analyzed using the Network Development Plan data in combination with the SimBench test grid and statistical data. Results show the impact of sector-coupled systems and decentralized energy generation attached to the grid.