Multi-Stage Planning of Decarbonized Suburban Heating Supply under Consideration of Prosumer Economics

Abstract:
As there is no legal obligation for building owners in Germany to connect to district heating (DH) networks, this creates uncertainty about DH’s economic viability for utilities. To address this, we propose a GIS-based, multi-stage planning approach that combines (1) an Urban Planning Model, identifying suitable DH network areas using energy-based zoning, and (2) a Prosumer Economics Model, evaluating building-level decisions on heating system adoption. Using the pro-posed approach, we were able to identify areas where building-level decisions align sufficiently with identified DH net-work areas to support the economic viability of DH, and others where more informed pricing strategies are required to achieve a substantial DH connection rate. Applied to two diverse suburbs in Kiel, our results show that achieving a DH connection rate sufficient for economic viability depends on DH’s cost-competitiveness relative to alternative heating systems, influenced by buildings’ thermal power, consumers’ bundling of technologies that enhance each other’s performance—e.g., heat pumps and photovoltaic systems—and the feasibility of alternative heating options.