Methodology for the estimation of the flexibilization potential of household consumers in electrical grids

Abstract:
The household sector makes a significant contribution to electricity consumption in Germany and will continue to rise due to developments such as electromobility and the increased use of heat pumps. In this article, the potential for flexi-bilization of electricity consumption in households is estimated by calculating the flexible and non-flexible share using smart meters and disaggregation methods. Three households in a terraced house complex with very different consumer behaviour were selected as examples for the analysis. Various disaggregation algorithms were tested to determine the consumption of individual appliances. The non-flexible share of household electricity consumption could be determined with high accuracy both for the total base load of the house and for individual periodically running appliances such as refrigerators and freezers. It was more difficult to estimate the flexible share of only flexibly usable appliances such as washing machines and dishwashers, as these are more difficult to disaggregate due to their irregular use over time and the low data resolution. Summing up the consumption of several flexible appliances led to a significant improvement in the results. It was shown that the flexibilization potential can be estimated with higher accuracy either by filtering out the non-flexible part of the consumption from the total consumption or by directly disaggregating the flexible household consumers. The flexible share of consumption cannot be generalized and lies between 6.9 % and 39.4 % for selected households.