Risk assessment of the electricity balancing group model compared to various purchasing models for full electricity supply

Abstract:
In 2018, the Main-Taunus district developed the so-called ‘electricity balancing group model’ under the leadership of the local electricity supplier in order to be able to use electricity produced by its own PV and CHP systems, which is not consumed directly on site but transported via the public electricity grid in other properties of the municipality [1]. The billing system works in such a way that these surplus quantities are settled in a common balancing group with the simul-taneous electricity consumption quantities of all properties in the municipality on a quarter-hourly basis. The costs for balancing the balancing group through spot market trading and balancing energy are charged to the electricity customer. Nevertheless, the enormous rise of exchange electricity prices in 2022 due to the Ukraine crisis meant that very high savings were achieved compared to the feed-in tariffs based on the costs of PV plants. Exchange electricity prices have since fallen again. This article presents a methodology for extracting risk premiums ex post for full electricity supply products and comparing them with the risk costs of the electricity balancing group model. In this way, it is possible to determine which electricity purchasing model is the most favourable if the price differences that occur due to random electricity futures market developments at different procurement times of the models examined are eliminated.