Spatial Electric Load Forecasting Using Fuzzy Cellular Automata Technique

Conference: UPEC 2011 - 46th International Universities' Power Engineering Conference
09/05/2011 - 09/08/2011 at Soest, Germany

Proceedings: UPEC 2011

Pages: 6Language: englishTyp: PDF

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Wasilewski, Jacek (Institute of Electrical Power Engineering, Warsaw University of Technology, 00-062 Warsaw, Koszykowa 75, Poland)

The paper deals with a novel approach to spatial electric load forecasting (SELF). All the known SELF methods are based on the top-down approach in which the spatial load distribution results from the global long-term forecasts (as for instance demographic indices). An alternative bottom-up approach to SELF task is presented, which uses the modified fuzzy cellular automata (FCA). In this approach all the global factors are purposely overlooked. Only the local determinants affecting the spatial load distribution are investigated. The paper presents briefly the mathematical formulation of the proposed FCA model as well as its verification. Finally the conclusions and future research plans are discussed.