Mathematical model of the impact of climate change on the energy security of the Republic of Tajikistan

Abstract:
This paper presents a mathematical model designed to assess the impact of climate change on the energy security of the Republic of Tajikistan. As the country’s energy system relies heavily on hydropower, climate-induced changes in water availability may significantly undermine the sustainability and reliability of the national energy sector. The proposed model incorporates six key climatic and energy-related parameters. The novelty of the study lies in its integrated approach to evaluating energy security by considering climate scenarios and applying weighted coefficients to diverse influencing factors. The study is relevant due to the pressing need to adapt national energy policy to evolving climate conditions. The findings can be utilized for forecasting and strategic planning to enhance energy sector resilience, mitigate climate-related risks, and improve the efficiency of water resource management.