Challenges and Approaches for Long-Term Reactive Power Forecasting in Power Systems

Abstract:
The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is driving profound changes across all voltage levels of the electrical grid, altering active power (P) as well as reactive power (Q) behavior. This transformation involves a shift from predominantly top-down, unidirectional electricity flows to bidirectional and increasingly complex flow patterns, fundamentally altering the operation and utilization of power systems. Many countries are already reporting notable changes in their transmission grid Q. This can lead to increased costs for grid expansion and compensation equipment, as well as grid losses. To minimize these losses and ensure grid stability and efficiency, understanding and forecasting Q long-term becomes essential. This paper addresses the challenges of long-term (1-20 years) Q forecasting in general by analyzing Q behavior in grids, the main influencing grid parameters, and reviewing existing forecasting approaches. It evaluates the applicability of these approaches and highlights current research gaps and trends. By focusing on this underexplored area, the paper aims to support the development of more advanced and reliable long-term Q forecasting techniques.